The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, including 3 relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
Both State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to numerous bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded gamer."
Even though highly regarded money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
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So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the wagering action.
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Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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